Review of Forecast against Actual Business Developments

The forecast of the Group for fiscal 2021 published in the Annual Report for fiscal 2020 comprised the forecast for the Group as well as the forecast for the three business sectors: Life Science, Healthcare, and Electronics.

Net sales

We forecast strong organic net sales growth for the Group in 2021. Over the course of the year, the Group reported more dynamic organic sales growth on the back of the sustained strong organic growth of the Life Science business sector in particular. This meant we exceeded our original forecast with double-digit overall organic net sales growth of 13.8% in fiscal 2021. At the start of the year, we still anticipated negative exchange rate effects of between -2% and -5% on our net sales. However, several currencies saw more favorable development than expected as the year progressed, particularly the Chinese yuan. The negative exchange rate effect in 2021 as a whole was ‑1.4%, thus falling within our most recent update in the third quarter, which provided for a range of ‑1% to ‑2%. The slightly negative portfolio effect was negligible at -0.1%.

Life Science

Our Life Science business sector significantly exceeded our original forecast, generating organic sales growth of 21.3% in 2021. Thanks to consistently strong demand in our core business and the extreme relevance of our product and service range in the context of the pandemic, we updated our forecast in the third quarter to provide for a range of between +20% and +22%. As expected, Process Solutions was again the most dynamic business unit, delivering the largest contribution to organic sales growth within Life Science. Applied Solutions and Research Solutions also contributed positively to the organic sales performance, as anticipated, albeit to a considerably lesser extent than Process Solutions.

Healthcare

We originally forecast strong organic sales growth for our Healthcare business sector compared with the previous year. Although the Covid-19 pandemic continued to have some impact, the business sector met this forecast with strong organic growth of 8.5% in 2021 as a whole. This also fell within the range of +8% to +9% that we forecast in our most recent update in the third quarter. This development was driven in particular by the significant growth contribution from fertility business compared with the muted performance in the previous year due to the pandemic, as well as the substantial growth in our most recently approved products, especially Bavencio^®.

Electronics

Since we anticipated positive development in semiconductor business, we forecast solid organic growth for our Electronics business sector at the start of the year. The business sector slightly outperformed the original forecast with organic sales growth of 7.7%. Our main assumptions concerning strong growth momentum in Semiconductor Solutions, a recovery in Surface Solutions, and strong organic growth in OLED business proved to be accurate. Thanks to an especially strong fourth quarter for Semiconductor Solutions in particular, the business sector ultimately closed the year at the upper end of the most recent forecast range of between 7% and 8%.

EBITDA pre

For 2021, we originally forecast high single-digit to low double-digit organic growth in EBITDA pre for the Group compared with the previous year. This assumption was based on the expectation of low double-digit organic growth in Life Science, accompanied by strong organic growth in Healthcare and solid to strong growth in Electronics. Because of the expected unfavorable foreign exchange environment, we expected moderate negative exchange rate effects to impact EBITDA pre by between -2% and -5% compared with the prior year. EBITDA pre amounted to € 6,103 million in fiscal 2021. This represented an overall increase of 26.2% compared with the prior-year figure adjusted for the reversal of a provision for a patent dispute in the amount of € 365 million. The organic growth of 27.0% included in this figure fell within the forecast range of 26% to 29% we issued in the third quarter of 2021. Without adjusting the prior-year figure for the reversal of the provision, organic growth was also within the most recent forecast range of 17% to 20%, coming in at 18.1%. Exchange rate effects had a less negative impact than anticipated at the start of the year, which is why we narrowed our forecast range to between ‑1% and ‑2% in our reporting over the course of the year, ultimately closing 2020 at ‑0.6%.

Life Science

For the Life Science business sector, we originally forecast low double-digit organic growth in EBITDA pre on the back of the expected organic sales growth. However, the impact of the sustained high level of additional demand in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly in the Process Solutions business unit, became increasingly evident as the year progressed. We responded by upwardly revising our forecast for organic growth in EBITDA pre on several occasions, most recently to between 36% and 39%. With EBITDA pre of € 3,286 million in fiscal 2021 (2020: € 2,405 million) and year-on-year organic growth of 37.7%, the business sector’s performance was consistent with the forecast range that was raised significantly in the report on the third quarter. Foreign exchange development impacted EBITDA pre in the Life Science business sector by ‑0.9%, which was marginally more favorable than our latest forecast range of -1% to -2%.

Healthcare

For our Healthcare business sector, we forecast strong organic growth in EBITDA pre compared with the previous year due to substantial expected earnings contributions from our new products, particularly Mavenclad^® and Bavencio^®. Healthcare generated EBITDA pre of € 2,153 million in 2021 (2020: € 1,902 million after adjustment for the reversal of a provision for a patent dispute in the amount of € 365 million; € 2,267 million excluding this adjustment). This represents an increase of 13.2% compared with the adjusted prior-year figure, while the organic growth of 17.1% fell within the forecast range at the end of the year. Without adjusting the prior-year figure for the reversal of the provision, organic growth was also within the most recent forecast range of +1% to -2%, coming in at -1.7%. By contrast, the foreign exchange effect on EBITDA pre in 2021 as a whole was substantially less negative than expected at the start of the year at ‑3.2%, meaning it also fell outside the most recently adjusted range of between ‑5% and ‑6%.

Electronics

Due to the anticipated growth in Semiconductor Solutions and active cost management in connection with the Bright Future transformation program, we originally forecast solid to strong organic growth in EBITDA pre in the Electronics business sector. With semiconductors in particular developing positively as expected, the forecast for organic earnings growth was raised slightly in the first quarter and remained constant over the course of the year. Electronics recorded EBITDA pre of € 1,128 million in 2021 as a whole (2020: € 1,024 million). This represented strong year-on-year organic growth of 9.7%, which was at the upper end of our forecast at the start of the year and also fell within the most recent forecast range of 9% to 12%. The slightly positive foreign exchange effect of 0.5% was slightly above our forecast of 0% to ‑2% in the third quarter.

Corporate and Other

The expenses for Corporate and Other in EBITDA pre amounted to € ‑465 million in fiscal 2021. This was consistent with the forecast issued at the start of the year as well as the most recent update, which provided for a forecast range of between € ‑440 million and € ‑470 million. Compared with the prior-year figure of € ‑495 million, this corresponded to a reduction in costs of -6.2%.

Operating cash flow

We originally expected the operating cash flow of the Group to increase slightly year-on-year in 2021. With an operating cash flow of € 4,616 million, up 32.7% on the previous year (2020: € 3,477 million), this forecast was exceeded by some distance. This was due in particular to the higher level of EBITDA pre in the Life Science business sector.